Bold Prediction for a Wacky Season

My 2008 NFL season started off with a bold prediction, and rightfully will finish with one:

The NFC champion will beat the AFC champion in the Super Bowl this year.

That’s right. As improbable as it sounds, I will stand behind my prediction that either the Cardinals or the Eagles will win this year’s Super Bowl, regardless of whom they play.

And why not? This year we have seen crazier things, right? Two number six seeds might meet in the Super Bowl, and both number one seeds were eliminated in their first games. At this point, home teams are only 3-5 in the postseason, and the NFC Championship game has two participants with fewer than 10 wins for the first time in the modern era. This season, three teams with records of 9-6-1, 9-7, and 8-8 made the playoffs, but five teams with a winning record missed out, included the 11-5 Patriots.

The Cardinals looked disastrous at the end of the season, losing 4 of their last 6 games by a combined 97 points. They could not buy a close game on the east coast, let alone a win until last week’s dismantling of the league’s best home team.

The Eagles needed one of two things to happen to make the playoffs: either beat Washington in Week 16 (they couldn’t) or have Oakland beat Tampa Bay and one of the two NFC North teams lose. Miraculously, the planets aligned and Oakland overcame a late 14 point deficit to win. This alone should solidify my theory of the impossible this year.

When push comes to shove, the Steelers are the best of the remaining teams. They should theoretically win their last two games, regardless of their opponent. If the Ravens were to knock them off, they clearly would have earned their spot in the Super Bowl, and will most likely be favored to finish this remarkable run on February 1st.

Everything points to an AFC champion this year. With the exception of the Giants and possibly the Panthers in the later weeks, the best teams this year have generally played in the AFC: Patriots (preseason, and made an argument late), Steelers, Titans, and Colts. Every one of those teams were battle tested all season, and none more so than the Steelers.
So why is the NFL champion coming from the NFC? Because every stated fact explains otherwise. The actuality that the Eagles and Cardinals are even playing in the NFC Championship is improbable enough given the circumstances surrounding their playoff runs.

This year, more than ever, has exemplified the parody of the NFL, as well as the excellence of competition from throughout the duration. Going into Week 16, it was possible that four Week 17 matchups would decide position or inclusion in the playoffs: Eagles vs. Cowboys, Jets vs. Dolphins, Giants vs. Vikings, Chargers vs. Broncos. While not all of these turned out deciding the fate of the postseason matchups, the possible potential of these games alone created excitement. Even two teams with no chance at the playoffs played a meaningful game, where the Lions were desperately trying to avoid being the first 0-16 team in NFL history.

All logic explains that this theory is centered around improbability, but based on everything I’ve season this season, every odd bounce, torn ligament, offseason knee surgery (or two), and incredible success of the underdogs, I leave you with this one thought:

If there was ever a season for the improbable to happen, this would be the one.